#1 San Miguel Beermen vs #5 Rain or Shine Elasto Painters
Elimination round meeting: Rain or Shine def. San Miguel, 108-105.
The San Miguel Beermen withstood a brave challenge from the Star Hotshots in the quarterfinals, needing two games to advance to the semi-finals of the PBA Commissioner’s Cup and, ultimately, keep their hopes for a grand slam season alive.
The road does not get any easier for the Beermen as they face a familiar foe in Rain or Shine. The Elasto Painters have been in the semi-finals for the ninth consecutive conference, the longest active streak in the league today. Rain or Shine breezed past Barangay Ginebra in the quarter-finals, sweeping the crowd darlings in two games by an averaging of 8.5 points.
San Miguel and Rain or Shine remain two of the best teams in the league today. They are the league’s two best three-point shooting teams in this conference, and both rank high in assists per game, offensive rating, and net rating.
It will be the third straight conference the two sides are squaring off against each other, and this time promises to be an even more exciting one as both teams parade reinforcements which complement their respective systems well.
Aside from that, both the Beermen and Elasto Painters have healthy rosters, something that is bound to make the series a highly-competitive one.
The Case for San Miguel
Star import Ricardo Ratliffe dominated the paint in the quarter-finals and yet the Beermen still managed to prevail. If the Elasto Painters are not going to be as terrorizing as the Hotshots around the rim, the Beermen won’t have to throw a lot of help defense inside. San Miguel’s key players may have had their struggles, but there is a reason why they are great players; they won’t struggle like that for an entire series. And when the Beermen need to get it done defensively, they are capable of getting stops. The Beermen have won back to back semi-finals series against the Elasto Painters; they have come a long way and they should be prepared enough for whatever punches the Elasto Painters throw at them.
The Case for Rain or Shine
This is the closest the Elasto Painters can get to defeating the Beermen in a series. They are at full-strength. Jeff Chan is shooting well from the outside. JR Quinahan is in the best shape of his career and it has been showing in his numbers. The Elasto Painters have a hefty import in Pierre Henderson-Niles which will allow the team to have just a single-coverage on Fajardo on defense. Paul Lee, although not in his 2015 self, is capable of making impact. The team’s youngsters have all improved. The team has a ton of perimeter defenders and shooters to match the Beermen pound-for-pound. They are more stacked than Star and they have more weapons than the Hotshots. They just can’t mess up with this opportunity.
Key players
San Miguel Beer: June Mar Fajardo, Marcio Lassiter
June Mar Fajardo increased his averages to 16.5 PPG and 10.5 RPG in the quarter-finals. He should again bring it his A game in the semi-finals to draw the attention of the Elasto Painters defense and keep them guessing. Marcio Lassiter, meanwhile, should be on target from the outside to help the Beermen stretch the defense. Lassiter shoots slightly better from three-point area in wins (43.6 percent) than in losses (41 percent). Anytime he gets rhythm from the outside, it will be a more difficult situation for the opponent.
Rain or Shine: JR Quinahan, Jeff Chan
JR Quinahan continued to impress in the quarter-finals, averaging 19 PPG on 63 percent field goal shooting to lead the Elasto Painters. This kind of performance must be shown again in the semi-finals, to help give more space for Rain or Shine’s guards to attack the basket. Jeff Chan is back in his deadly form, shooting over 42 percent from the outside. If he can contribute a good 15+ points a game, the Elasto Painters will have a better chance.
X-Factors
San Miguel Beer: Chris Ross
Chris Ross was instrumental in San Miguel’s series clincher over Star, finishing with 13 points, four rebounds, five assists, and three steals. Leaving an imprint on both ends of the floor will surely help the Beermen’s campaign.
Rain or Shine: Gabe Norwood
Photo courtesy of PBA Images
We have seen Yeng Guiao go small from time to time with Gabe Norwood playing the four spot in the past. Tyler Wilkerson is poised to create havoc in this series, and Norwood would probably pick him up for certain stretches. If he can limit the Beermen import and force him to tough looks, it will be a big plus for the Elasto Painters.
Prognosis
Jeff Chan (Photo courtesy of PBA Images)
Rain or Shine in 5.
The Elasto Painters are in full-strength. They have an import which can contain Fajardo; single coverage on the reigning MVP spells a huge difference as the four other defenders on the floor could now just concentrate on their respective assignments. Overall, everyone is locked in and contributing. It will be a grueling battle against a fellow powerhouse squad, but in the end, the Elasto Painters may just emerge victorious.
