The UAAP Season 85 Men’s Basketball Finals is the biggest event in Philippine collegiate basketball, and 2022’s rematch of last season’s championship series promises to be extra thrilling. The two teams that have made it to the finals University of the Philippines and Ateneo de Manila University.
The Fighting Maroons have had an incredible season, led by presumptive MVP Malick Diouf.
He has been a force to be reckoned with on the court, and has helped lead UP back to the Finals. Alongside him are Carl Tamayo, Zav Lucero, Terrence Fortea, and JD Cagulangan, among others. The Fighting Maroons also have a strong supporting cast, with several other players who have been playing at a high level all season.
On the other hand, the Blue Eagles are the hottest team right now.
They have won seven games in a row, including a 21-point shellacking of Adamson in the Final Four. Many people doubted whether they could go as far as last season’s veteran-laden team, but they have proven the doubters wrong with their strong play and team chemistry. Of course, Ateneo is led by its own star big man, Ange Kouame, who has been putting up impressive numbers all season despite having a busted knee.
The stage is set for an epic battle between these two teams. The defending champions from UP will look to rely on their star power and a deep bench to come out on top. Meanwhile, their top-seeded Katipunan neighbors from Ateneo will try to use their teamwork and determination to reclaim their crown.
No matter who comes out on top, one thing is for sure: this year’s Finals is going to be a must-see event for Pinoy basketball fans everywhere.
Here are six bold predictions for the best-of-three series:
Kai has a 20-10 game
Fil-Am forward Kai Ballungay had a bit of a slow start to the season, scoring just 3 points in Ateneo’s opener against FEU. However, he has really picked things up since then.
Entering the Finals, the native of Tracy, California is averaging 11.1 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 1.4 triples per game. He also had a couple of near-20-10 games this season, and we feel he’ll put one up in the Finals.
Yes, Kai has notoriously struggled against UP.
In two games against the Maroons, Kai has normed just 6.0 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 0.5 triples while shooting just 30.0-percent from the field. Still, he’s heading into this series raring to prove himself, and he’s also Ateneo’s top-scoring threat, at least in terms of shooting splits (56/45/74).
Dave’s shooting slump continues
Speaking of shooting splits, we want to see better percentages from Dave Ildefonso.
The second-generation star currently leads Ateneo in scoring, but he’s far from being their most efficient shooter. In fact, entering the Finals, Dave is carrying 31/26/62 shooting splits. For sure, the Eagles will need much more efficient offense from him if they are to reclaim the UAAP Men’s Basketball title.
Dave is also relatively turnover-prone. He coughs the ball up nearly three times a game. And against UP? That number balloons to 5.0 turnovers per encounter. Clearly, he’ll be tested in the Finals, but there’s also hardly anyone on Ateneo’s roster who’s aching so much for redemption after falling short in Season 84. That said, we just don’t see Dave pulling his splits up in the face of a tough UP defense.
Diouf is Kouame’s kryptonite
Ateneo’s Ange Kouame has been among the most efficient players this season. In fact, he’s been atop the player efficiency ladder (https://sites.google.com/view/uaapseason85mbtstats/player-efficiency-rankings) almost every week. That is until UP’s Malick Diouf unseated him after the Final Four.
Right now, Kouame is averaging 11.6 points, 11.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and a league-leading 2.5 blocks per game. He also has 55/44/53 shooting splits. Diouf, for his part, is norming 11.2 points, 11.5 boards, 2.8 assists, and 1.7 blocks per game. He also has 49/20/68 shooting splits while owning the league’s best plus-minus average at plus-11.7 per game.
Kouame got the better of Diouf in their last meeting, though. Ange had 14 points, 17 rebounds, and two blocks in Ateneo’s win over UP in the second round. Diouf, meanwhile, had a paltry seven points, seven boards, and a block. We feel, however, that the latter will bounce back big time in the Finals.
The Senegalese slotman will show everyone why he’s the season MVP, and his production will cancel out Ange’s numbers in their titanic tussle.
Carl Tamayo is Finals MVP
Cebu native Carl Tamayo just brings it whenever he plays Ateneo.
Coming from someone who used to coach against Carl in high school, I’m not surprised he elevates his play during big games. Whenever he sees that Ateneo blue, something just clicks in his head, and he goes superhuman.
I mean, consider the following. In his two games against Ateneo this season, Carl has averaged 20.0 points and 11.5 rebounds while shooting 46.9% from the floor. Against the other six teams in the UAAP, Carl has averaged just 12.2 points and 6.6 rebounds while shooting 44.6-percent from the field. Yes, his usage likely goes up against Ateneo, but that’s just it — we’re going to see Finals Carl Tamayo again just like Season 84.
Sure, he’s not 100-percent given his right ankle injury, but that’s not going to stop Carl. You better believe he’s going to play hard and play really well out there.
Well enough to be Finals MVP again? We believe so.
Race to the Line
So let’s say Malick is the answer to Ange, Zave is the answer to Dave, Carl is the answer to Kai, and JD is the answer to Forth, what will actually tip the scales from one team to the other?
There are many possible things, of course. We can talk about three-point shooting, turnovers, bench scoring, rebounding, and many more.
We posit, however, that it’s actually going to be free throws. In particular, the team that gets to the line more will win the championship. That’s been the trend between these two teams this season. In both of their matchups, the team with more free throw attempts won. UP had plus-8 attempts in the first round, while Ateneo had plus-11 attempts in the second.
It’s not even about who shoots BETTER from the line. It’s about who’s aggressive enough to draw more fouls, get to the line more times, and potentially get opposing key players in foul trouble. If getting to the line is a by-product of aggressiveness, then whoever gets to the line (i.e., whoever plays more aggressively) will win.
UP Repeats
Having said that, we feel that the defending champions will successfully repeat. It’ll be a three-game series. We don’t see any 20-point blowouts. Heck, we may have three overtime games, and that’d be hella fun. But whatever it takes and however long it takes, the outcome will be the UP Fighting Maroons raising the Season 85 trophy. That’s our objective pick.
UP has the season MVP.
They have last year’s Finals MVP.
They have the kid who hit the title-clinching shot last season.
They have championship experience.
They have confidence.
They will have the upper hand. And they will win again.
Let’s not even get too caught up in the “underdog” narrative anymore. Ask an Isko, and for sure they’ll say they’re the underdogs. Ask an Atenean and no doubt they see themselves as the underdogs.
This nitpicky “underdog” issue is just a manifestation that, whether these Katipunan neighbors like it or not, this is no longer a “neighborly rivalry.” Three times meeting in the Finals in the last four seasons? There’s nothing neighborly about that anymore.
Recall that Ateneo beat UP the first time they met in the Finals in Season 81. UP finally got the monkey off its back six months ago in Season 84.
Now, it’s a veritable rubber match expanded into a three-game series, and we’re here for all the slings, smoke, and slander.
