From The Block: This is not your usual Ginebra-Meralco Finals

The public perception did not exactly favor Meralco heading into a fourth showdown against Ginebra in the PBA Governors’ Cup finals, but the noise probably mattered little for these Bolts. Despite losing against the Gin Kings in each of the last three times they met in the title series of the season-ending tournament, they know that somehow, things are going to be different this time around.

During Game One last Wednesday, they made sure everybody got the memo.

By leaning on their old reliables and a slew of new additions to supercharge a patient offense and connect a disciplined defense, Meralco jumped to a 1-0 series lead and put itself in good company, as 60 of the 88 teams that won the best-of-seven championship series opener went on to clinch the title later.

Of course, that’s hardly a vote of confidence in the Bolts’ chances of winning it all, especially given the fact that Meralco also won Game One in their first face-off back in 2016, making them the first of five teams over the last 12 tournaments to end up losing the finals series after taking the first game.

But aside from bagging Game One, there are little to no parallels between the wide-eyed Meralco core that breached the finals for the first time in its young franchise history over five years ago, and this talent-laden, multi-faceted group hardened by the failures from the last half-decade and bolstered by the inclusions of Chris Banchero and Aaron Black, among others.

More importantly, though, this isn’t the same Ginebra team that dealt the Bolts heartbreak after heartbreak in seasons past – partly due to injuries to top gun Stanley Pringle (torn meniscus) and big man Japeth Aguilar (calf strain), and also because of a defense that has not been up to its usual standard. Per ‘Stats by Ryan’, an advanced stats database soon to be publicized on Tiebreaker Times, the Gin Kings entered the finals with a defensive rating that ranked 10th among 12 squads after 17 games.

Ginebra has done enough so far on the offensive end (second in offensive efficiency) to alleviate those concerns, but in a high-stakes, seven-game series, there’s an off chance that those problems could come into full view. Consider these:

• The last PBA champion with a below-average defense was San Miguel in the 2019 Commissioner’s Cup, where the Beermen posted the league’s worst defensive rating on their way to winning the midseason tournament. The next three champions have held at least a top-five defense, including the Gin Kings, who was fifth and third in defensive efficiency when they won back-to-back titles in the 2019 Governors’ Cup and the 2020 Philippine Cup.
• In the 2015-16 and 2016-17 seasons, where Ginebra won Governors’ Cup championships, the team bannered a top-two and top-three defense, respectively, per RealGM.

There’s no reason to believe Ginebra can’t buck the trend and go all the way – remember, this is a sixth-seeded team that knocked off two playoff favorites, including last conference’s champion in a twice-to-win situation, to get to this point – but they will surely have to address the gaps exploited by Meralco in the opener.

For starters, the lack of an imposing rim-protecting presence was an issue that the Bolts repeatedly pressed on like an open wound, as they scored 52 points on a staggering 68.4 percent shooting in the restricted area against an inert frontline. Without the towering Japeth Aguilar (1.3 blocks in 14 games) roaming around the basket, the onus was on Christian Standhardinger to keep things tidy inside.

Stanhardinger wasn’t the sole reason for Ginebra’s inability to protect the paint, but his limitations didn’t quite help Ginebra. He doesn’t possess the length nor the hops to be a legitimate rim protector (0.2 blocks per 36 minutes), and while his mobility and instincts have improved a tad over time, he remains far from being a consistently fearsome deterrent.

Cliff Hodge and Raymond Almazan were some of the biggest benefactors; Hodge scored 17 points on a near-immaculate 8-for-9 shooting, while Almazan put up 10 on 4-for-7 shots. Both met little resistance at the rim, as Meralco repeatedly sought Standhardinger in the pick-and-roll, allowed the bigs to straight-up attack the Fil-German center, or just found one of the two men somehow open underneath:

Allein Maliksi wasn’t always a direct beneficiary, but he did get himself going as well in certain instances where the Bolts involved Standhardinger. In general, he was just sublime, scoring 15 of his 22 in the first half – with 10 in an all-important second quarter where they built a lead as big as 14 – to jolt a Meralco offense:

Maliksi is often an under-discussed element to Meralco’s success, but he’s been chugging along as one of the most underrated scorers in today’s PBA and has seamlessly found his place within a Bolts offense that makes an obvious effort to get him involved. His numbers between his first conference with this team compared to his figures this tournament are night and day:

* True Shooting Percentage (TS%). League average this conference is 52.9.
** Games played before the finals

Like most microwave scorers, Maliksi is still prone to bad nights, which is why it’s imperative for other members of the backcourt to act as safety nets and get their own thing going.

Chris Newsome will most certainly dictate Meralco’s chances at having a great offensive game as their best local, but a quiet night from him like in Game One (eight points, seven assists, four rebounds isn’t bad at all; he’s just that good to be producing more) means the Bolts will have to get more from their other guards.

Enter Banchero and Black – the former a highly-celebrated addition to this Meralco core, and the latter a much-maligned guard unfairly accused of getting a free ride to the league.

Both guards make up a Bolts backcourt rotation that is arguably one of today’s best despite lacking the name recall. Banchero, initially listed as doubtful in Game Onel due to a reported upper body injury, suited up and managed to make a big impact in limited playing time, posting just six assists against just one turnover in just 14 minutes:

Aaron has been getting a lot of ignorant, unwarranted hate as the son of coach Norman, which has to stop. There’s a reason why he’s getting significant minutes – his patience and feel for the game continue to grow as the games pass, he picks his spots well, and his decision-making with the ball in his hands has been pretty sound. In his finals debut, he showcased all of that and put up 12 points (6-for-9 shooting), six boards, and three assists in 34 minutes:

And then there’s the defense. Meralco threw different coverages against ball-handlers, made crisp rotations and close-outs, and got a lot of deflections, forcing Ginebra to shoot a paltry 38.3 percent from the field, including a below-average 29.4 percent on 3s, as well as just 36 points inside the paint (far from their league-high 48.1 within that area) on 48.6 percent shooting:

The Bolts also did a fine job defending super import Justin Brownlee, who probably played his worst offensive game of the conference by logging 27 points on 7-for-20 shooting, though he did make all 11 of his free throws. Meralco made Brownlee work hard for his shot by throwing bodies after bodies, which they’re equipped to do so – their third-ranked defense is built on the backs of sturdy, rangy defenders capable of making life uncomfortable for the league’s best scorers:

As fine as this start was for the Bolts, they are well aware of Ginebra’s ability to find answers after getting punched in the mouth. It’s not like Meralco played a perfect game, either; a ton of the Gin Kings’ missed shots were makeable, and Best Player of the Conference frontrunner Scottie Thompson (19 pts, 10 rebounds, 10 assists, 2 steals) still managed to hurt them in a variety of ways – as an off-ball cutter, an advantage creator, a primary and secondary playmaker, a spot-up shooter, and, of course, on defense, where he wreaked havoc in select instances:

But the Bolts will gladly take this one, despite the caveats. After all, that’s one less win needed to bring a sea of change – one that should wash away all the disappointments of the previous seasons and finally put Meralco on board in what has been a one-sided rivalry so far.

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