It took a bit longer than expected, but we’ve finally reached the starting line of the 2021-22 PBA Governors’ Cup playoffs, where the real title contenders will finally look to separate themselves from the rest of the pack once the quarterfinals tip-off on Wednesday.
In this space, we’ll be taking a quick look at every team battling to advance to the semifinals – how their conference has gone so far, any lingering concerns they’ll have to address, and a peek at their import’s performance and the locals to monitor moving forward.
We’re continuing our mini-series with the no. 4 vs. no. 5 matchup set on Friday, 3 p.m between Meralco and San Miguel – the former looking to avenge an unseemly loss vs. the Beermen last March 5 where they blew a 26-point lead, and the latter eyeing to buck a twice-to-win disadvantage for yet another upset.
Numbers are courtesy of ‘Stats by Ryan’ – an advanced stats database managed by stats guru Ryan Alba that will soon be published in Tiebreaker Times.
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No. 4 MERALCO (7-4)
Offensive Rating: 110.4 (4th)
Defensive Rating: 104.7 (5th)
Net Rating: 5.7 (4th)
WHAT HAS WORKED SO FAR: Discipline, plus some old-school hustle
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They don’t get a lot of credit for it, but the Bolts under Norman Black remain one of the most well-coached teams today – smart on defense, tactically diverse on offense – despite often lacking the star power possessed by their counterparts. It’s why, season after season, they’re more or less a shoo-in for the shortlist of contenders even if they’ve repeatedly fallen short in their quest for that elusive first franchise title.
Meralco has fielded a top-four offense in the first 11 games even if the team hasn’t shot a lot of threes (10th in attempts) or gotten to the line much (8th in free throw rate). There’s little aimless meandering, guys are getting the intended shots within a system that throws a ton of screens, and they’re pretty careful with the rock; so far, the Bolts are fourth in Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) and in the percentage of shots assisted. Only three more teams have turned the ball over less.
It helps that they’re pretty gutsy at the glass, too. They’re not a great defensive rebounding team, but Meralco has made up for it by crashing the offensive boards a lot; no squad has grabbed a higher percentage of their own misses than the Bolts (33.0 percent), who turned those misses into 16.6 second-chance points – good for the second-best figure this conference.
A lot of that can be traced to some scrappy activity from Raymond Almazan (7.5 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.3 blocks, 18 minutes) and Cliff Hodge (6.6 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 29 minutes); both guys are inside the top-six in terms of offensive rebounding rate. (Hodge leads all locals in that department and is second only to TNT import Aaron Fuller.)
CONCERN: Can the Bolts keep their composure under the bright lights?
As good as Meralco has been, there are legitimate concerns over the team’s ability to keep it together in crunch time. All four of the Bolts’ losses came after building a double-digit lead; aside from that blown 26-point lead against SMB last March 5, they have also lost a 19-point cushion against NorthPort, a 17-point advantage versus Alaska, and a 16-digit buffer vs. Magnolia this conference.
Some of those problems can be traced to their failure to consistently defend without fouling, as only one other playoff team has tallied more fouls per contest than the Bolts. That negates any momentum they might have gained from forcing a ton of missed shots; Meralco is second only to Alaska in terms of opponent eFG%, holding opponents over two percentage points under the league average.
HOW’S THE IMPORT?
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Coach Black just doesn’t miss when it comes to selecting imports. Tony Bishop has been a snug fit on this Bolts team, holding his own as the offensive fulcrum for a roster that has always benefited from high-usage imports.
Bishop has cooled down a bit from his hot start, but he’s been electric overall, notching 28.5 points, 13.7 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.6 steals in 41.7 minutes, recording shooting splits of 49.4/45.9/73.2 for a True Shooting Percentage of 57.6 TS%. He’s kept his teammates involved despite possessing the ability to score from virtually anywhere; he has assisted on 19.3 percent of his teammates’ shots, fifth among all imports.
One concern: he hasn’t gotten to the line as much – though probably by no fault of his own, with Black even making comments in the media about the lack of whistle his import has been getting. Bishop has the lowest free throw attempt rate among imports who have played at least six games this conference.
LOCAL TO WATCH: Allein Maliksi
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Maliksi might be the most underrated offensive player in today’s PBA.
He has one job – to score the basketball – and he does it well. Maliksi’s 16.6 points only sits at 25th this conference, but he’s posted shooting splits of 48.5/40.3/84 for a 61.9 TS%; among 47 players who have attempted over 10 field goals a game, only Ginebra import Justin Brownlee (63 TS%) has been more efficient. That’s absurd.
Maliksi’s blend of volume and competence from deep has also been pretty special. Only 14 players have shot more than six threes a game this conference, and only one player shot better than his 40.3 percent from distance.
Scaling his averages per 36 would yield the fact that Maliksi is scoring 23.4 points – sixth in the PBA, first among all locals, and even ahead of imports Brownlee and NorthPort’s Jamel Artis. But will we ever see Maliksi log big minutes? He’s only played 24.7 minutes this conference, perhaps due to a myriad of factors – his middling defense, Black’s penchant for having a long rotation, his low assist numbers (2.1 per 36), or his fouling (5.8 minutes per 48 minutes for his career, per Stats by Ryan). Will he get a longer leash in the playoffs?
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No. 5 SAN MIGUEL (6-5)
Offensive Rating: 106 (6th)
Defensive Rating: 105.3 (7th)
Net: 0.7 (5th)
WHAT HAS WORKED SO FAR: Pushing the pace
San Miguel still has yet to throw the full weight of its star power around, as coach Leo Austria continues to juggle minutes and usage across the board. Vic Manuel (14.1 points, 5.0 rebounds, 56.1 TS%) has been eating on offense, but it hasn’t been infectious; other ball-dominant guys are struggling to stay efficient in lesser touches (CJ Perez, Terrence Romeo, Simon Enciso), some haven’t been as involved as they normally were in the past (Marcio Lassiter, Chris Ross), while another (Mo Tautuaa) saw a massive dip in his minutes.
The Beermen have dealt with this imbalance by pushing the tempo – one of the easiest ways to get a bucket without having to deal with the usage tug-of-war in the halfcourt. They don’t exactly play at the fastest pace this conference (fifth), but they’ve benefited a lot from running as much as they have, leading the league in fastbreak points (14.8) and ranking third in points off turnovers (19.2). SMB is getting a bunch of easy ones thanks to some good team effort on the defensive glass (fourth in percentage of defensive rebounds grabbed) and by picking off easy passes in passing lanes (fourth in steal rate).
There’s nothing but upside in deciding to attack a defense that’s not set in transition; getting quick, easy shots has helped overcome any shortcomings they’ve been dealing with in the half-court during tournament where three import changes have also prevented them from getting a consistent, stable flow on offense.
CONCERN: Will the defense put enough pressure on opposing offenses in the playoffs?
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The defense hasn’t been as airtight as coach Austria probably wants it to be, though to be fair, this roster isn’t exactly built to be a defensive juggernaut. But as mentioned in a previous piece, the trend right now for championship teams is to have at least a top-five defense, and the Beermen don’t really seem like they’re about to head in that direction soon.
Opponents are only shooting 42.1 percent from the field against San Miguel – the second-lowest figure – but they’re blitzing the Beermen from deep, where they’ve made 34 percent (third-highest) of the league-high 34.7 attempts they’re being gifted. SMB isn’t also a team that forces a lot of turnovers or turns up the heat consistently, even with the high steal rates; almost 64 percent of opposing teams’ field goals are assisted, which is the second-highest figure, and an indication that teams are still getting the type of shots they want to get against this defense. That’s fodder for elite offenses.
HOW’S THE IMPORT?
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Three import changes later, the Beermen have finally found the right import to pin their hopes on for their title chase.
The 2013 NBA lottery pick has been as great as advertised, posting 39.0 points (48.8/37.5/65.9 splits), 19.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 1.0 blocks in nearly 43 minutes after his first three games. Muhammad’s mediocre free throw shooting has cut into his overall efficiency (56.6 TS%) and he’s committed over six turnovers during that span, but it feels like being nitpicky by pointing them out, especially since he’s already dropped a fat 50-piece in a 26-point comeback against this very same Bolts team that his SMB is looking to upset starting Friday.
One thing worth monitoring: Muhammad has used 42.3 percent of SMB’s possessions through his stay, which would be a league-leading mark by far. Can his ball-dominant teammates comfortably carve their niche alongside their import in these playoffs?
LOCAL TO WATCH: Terrence Romeo
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Romeo hasn’t been playing like himself for quite some time now, and the addition of Manuel and Muhammad may have had an effect on his rhythm. After averaging 16.7 points (52.7 TS%) on team-high usage in the previous Philippine Cup, the 29-year-old guard is down to just 11.6 points on 36.6/27/83.3 splits (46.1 TS%) in the ongoing Governors’ Cup and is behind the two aforementioned guys in percentage possessions used.
Giving him more touches isn’t the answer, especially given how cold he is right now; he’s one of 16 locals attempting over five threes a game, but his 27 percent is the second-worst figure among those players. But Romeo’s potential to erupt is enormous; as the team’s most dynamic shot-creating threat from the perimeter, Meralco would be wise to keep him in check.
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