It took a bit longer than expected, but we’ve finally reached the starting line of the 2022 PBA Governors’ Cup playoffs, where the real title contenders will finally look to separate themselves from the rest of the pack once the quarterfinals tip-off on Wednesday.
In this space, we’ll be taking a quick look at every team battling to advance to the semifinals – how their conference has gone so far, any lingering concerns they’ll have to address, and a peek at their import’s performance and the locals to monitor moving forward.
Let’s start things off with the No. 2 vs. No. 7 matchup set on Wednesday, 3 p.m, between the NLEX Road Warriors (8-3), who will march on to the most important stretch of the conference with a brand-new import, and the Alaska Aces (6-5), who are desperately trying to write a happy ending to their last dance in the PBA while also replacing their import.
Numbers are courtesy of ‘Stats by Ryan’ – an advanced stats database managed by stats guru Ryan Alba that will soon be published in Tiebreaker Times.
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No. 2 NLEX (8-3)
Offensive Rating: 113.1 (2nd)
Defensive Rating: 105.1 (6th)
Net Rating: 8.1 (2nd)
WHAT HAS WORKED SO FAR: Offense
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The KJ McDaniels experience worked out incredibly well for NLEX, which reaped the benefits of having an import who could both supercharge an offense already equipped with good pieces and tie things together on the defensive end.
Most of what made that 11-game partnership successful is how McDaniels (30.4 points on 49/38.6/73.9 shooting, 11.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.6 steals, 2.8 blocks, 39.8 minutes in 11 games) made the most out of being the center of the action. The NBA veteran led the league in usage before his departure, but few shots were wasted; among eight imports who put up 20 shots a game, McDaniels’ 59.8 True Shooting Percentage (TS%) was fourth.
His efficiency trickled down to the rest of the roster, as Kevin Alas (more on him later), Calvin Oftana (11.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 61 TS%), Don Trollano (10.9 points, 60.7 TS%), and Jericho Cruz (10.2 points, 53.1 TS% before leaving in free agency) were empowered into becoming the best versions of themselves for an NLEX team that posted the second-best Effective Field Goal Percentage (53.2 eFG%) while firing (33.5 attempts, fourth) and making three-pointers (35 percent, second) at a considerably high rate.
The defense was decent, limiting 3s (26.6 opponent 3-point attempts were the second-lowest) and funneling a lot into McDaniels (2.8 blocks), who anchored a Road Warriors frontline that swatted the most shots on a per-game basis (5.0) in the elimination round.
CONCERN: Will NLEX look as good as they did in the eliminations with a different import?
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All it takes is one win for the Road Warriors to advance into the semifinals, but it might not be as easy as it probably might have been with McDaniels since they’ll have to start from scratch with new import Cameron Clark.
There are fundamental questions about how much of NLEX’s strengths from the elimination round will carry over into the playoffs. There’s always an off-chance that Clark replicates McDaniels’ offensive production despite the two having vastly different shot profiles, but previous data suggest that they aren’t the same players on defense, which may later spell trouble for a Road Warriors squad that isn’t exactly a bastion of defensive stability.
HOW’S THE IMPORT?
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Clark is coming off an 18-game campaign with Oldenburg in the German Bundesliga, where he averaged 12.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.2 blocks, and 1.8 turnovers in nearly 28 minutes per game, posting shooting splits of 45.8/37.5/69.4 for a 52.7 TS% — a tick below the PBA average (53.1 TS%) at this point in the conference.
Unlike McDaniels, who was second among imports in shots attempted from downtown (7.6) this conference, Clark has never attempted more than 2.5 3s a game throughout his eight-year international hoops career. He’s also not much of a rim protector, topping out at 0.7 blocks a game during his stint with Ironi Nahariya at the Israeli Basketball Premier League back in 2016.
LOCAL TO WATCH: Kevin Alas
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Few guards have been steadier this conference than Alas (16.4 points on 49.2/34.6/72.4 splits, 5.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.4 turnovers, 30.8 minutes in 11 games), who is expected to shoulder a heavier burden in the backcourt moving forward after Cruz bolted in free agency earlier this conference.
He’s ready to take on all comers. Alas continues to make vast strides as a playmaker — he currently ranks 11th among all players in assist rate — and is blending that passing with an unprecedented type of efficiency (61.8 TS%, third among locals shooting at least 10 field goals a game) thanks to some improved shooting from deep, where he has hit 34.6 percent of his 4.7 attempts — a mark that would by far be his highest in any conference if he sustains it.
The playoff crunch is bound to bite into his efficiency, but Alas keeping up this level of production would earn him some attention once voting for the Best Player of the Conference begins later on.
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No. 7 ALASKA (6-5)
Offensive Rating: 99.2 (12th)
Defensive Rating: 100.6 (1st)
Net Rating: -1.4 (7th)
WHAT HAS WORKED SO FAR: The defense
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When news of Alaska’s impending exit from the PBA broke out almost a month ago, the team vowed to go out swinging in hopes of collecting the 15th and final title for the storied franchise. Most of that trademark doggedness borne from the need to finish with a bang has reflected on the Aces’ defense, where they have made a living out of suffocating opposing offenses on their way to the playoffs.
Alaska has not tallied a lot of steals, forced a lot of turnovers, or rejected a ton of shots, but a stout, pesky, physical, and disciplined defense has resulted in teams shooting a league-low 40.6 percent from the field. Scoring against this Aces team is an exercise in futility, and even the seemingly easy looks haven’t produced anything worthwhile; Alaska allows the fourth-most triples a game, but teams have only connected on 29.0 percent on those – the third-lowest mark.
That stifling Alaska defense has done enough to somewhat make up for their glaring warts on offense, but it’s fair to wonder how long their work on that end can compensate for their subpar scoring come playoff time.
CONCERN: Can the Aces make a shot to save their lives?
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Winning is still mostly predicated on a team’s ability to put the ball in the hoop, but that’s something that Alaska continues to grapple with, to say the least. Only two teams have a lower eFG% than the Aces, who also seem allergic to making the very few 3s that they put up (27.5 percent is 11th, 22.2 attempts are dead-last). Among their rotation players, only one guy – their import, Olu Ashaolu – has scored above league average.
Exacerbating their woes on offense are their turnovers and their paltry free-throw shooting. Alaska leaves a lot of points on the table; the team attempted the most from the stripe (25.5) in the first 11 games but shot a league-worst 66.4 percent on them. The Aces also missed out on more opportunities to score by committing way too many errors and have posted the highest turnover average (16.8) and turnover rate (15.9 percent) so far.
HOW’S THE IMPORT?
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Like NLEX, Alaska will be fielding a different import after a last-minute switch, with Mark St. Fort set to step in for Olu Ashaolu.
St. Fort, 33, last played for the Fukushima Firebonds in the B.League’s Division II, where he posted 12.5 points on 52.3/28.6/71.7 splits (60.6 TS%), 5.9 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 0.9 steals in 22.3 minutes and 30 games.
Aside from some limited experience in the league’s Division I, where he played limited minutes for three squads over the years, there’s not much else to write about St. Fort, who should be a significant step down from what the Aces had in Ashaolu.
Ashaolu (18.7 points on 55.8/24/59.7 splits, 12.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 0.8 steals, 36.6 minutes) wasn’t the one-man antidote for Alaska’s malignant offense, but he did what he could and honestly made a good account for himself for the most part.
His relative defensive versatility and value as a secondary initiator took precedence over his scoring since he wasn’t the type of import to rain buckets on the opposition; among reinforcements who have played at least six games, Ashaolu’s 12 attempts a game were the lowest. But when tasked to score, the 33-year-old forward was incredibly reliable inside the arc, where he shot 62.8 percent – second among all imports.
As Alaska’s only viable scorer for the conference, Oshaolu would have been tasked to do some more heavy lifting against NLEX. Instead, the Aces will now have to hope St. Fort is able to replicate that sort of production – and more – once they take the floor against a heavily-favored Road Warriors team.
LOCAL TO WATCH: Jeron Teng
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The 27-year-old guard is still generally a below average offensive player (12.6 points on 38.7 percent shooting, 44.7 TS%), but some gains from the offseason tweaks he made to his shot mechanics are manifesting on the surface; Teng is attempting more 3s than ever (2.6 a game), and he’s hitting 32.1 percent on those – a tad above league average (31.9 percent), and a sign that perhaps the best is yet to come in terms of his offensive growth.
In the short-term, however, making Teng find gaps and creases elsewhere on the floor is the way to go if you’re Alaska. The hope is that he puts enough pressure against NLEX’s middling perimeter defense, especially in transition, and punches a hole at the rim, where he won’t have to contend with a fearsome barricade led by McDaniels.
It sounds easier in theory. In practice, however, it means giving Teng a good amount of spacing – the type of space that he had during his career night against Terrafirma last month – but the Road Warriors might call the bluff against Alaska’s league-worst shooting and pack the paint, anyway. Let’s see if any of this actually matters once the action starts on Wednesday.
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