UAAP S78 Men’s Football Final Survival Kit: UP v ADMU

Here we go. It all boils down to this. The Battle of Katipunan will determine who gets to take home the UAAP Season 78 Men’s Football Championship this Thursday (May 5, 2016; 5:30PM) at the Rizal Memorial Stadium. Come what may after ninety minutes, expect a cagey game with both teams hungry to reclaim the title. 

How ADMU qualified

The Ateneo de Manila University Blue Eagles returned to the Finals after a three-year absence courtesy of outlasting archrivals De La Salle University Green Archers, 5-4, in penalties last Thursday (April 28, 2016) at the Rizal Memorial Stadium.

Blue Eagles midfielder Carlo Liay opened the scoring in the first half while Green Archers striker Gelo Diamante leveled the scores late in the following period. Diamante then had a chance to seal the win for La Salle when he was through on goal, but he squandered the opportunity to do so.

Extra time beckoned for Ateneo and La Salle as fatigue and caution inevitable crept. The extra 30 minutes wasn’t enough to separate both teams, though, and the dreaded penalty shootout was needed to find a winner. The Blue Eagles and Green Archers nervelessly converted their spot-kicks with the former shooting first.

It then became, 5-4, in favor of Ateneo and La Salle needed to score if then wanted to stay alive. In the end, Ateneo substitute goalkeeper JP Oracion produced the one save needed against La Salle’s Jose Montelibano to help the Blue Eagles return to the promised land.

How UP qualified

In contrast to Ateneo, The University of the Philippines Fighting Maroons enjoyed a straightforward return to the Finals after they overpowered the University of Santo Tomas Growling Tigers, 3-0, in the earlier fixture of the Final Four day.

UP raced to a two-goal lead at the end of the first half as Kintaro Miyagi and Kyle Magdato both latched on Daniel Gadia assists to give UST a huge mountain to climb at the break. While UST improved in the second half, UP were still too strong for them.

Ace Villanueva, Fighting Maroons goalkeeper, virtually had no shot to save in front of him as his defense held firm. Despite the two-goal cushion, UP still pushed for the third goal which would seal the game off. The Fighting Maroons eventually got it in stoppage time when Rvin Resuma took advantage of Growling Tigers goalkeeper Zaldy Abraham’s error to end the game in style for UP.

The case for ADMU

Simply put, Ateneo is peaking at the right time. If the first elimination round was shambolic for the Blue Eagles, then the next eight games after that turned out to be great. Ateneo defeated the likes of Far Eastern University, UST and La Salle in the second round while they eliminated their aforementioned archrivals in the Final Four. 

However, that’s not to say that things have been perfect for the Blue Eagles. They lost to UP twice in the regular season while defensive woes against NU almost cost them a place in the post-season. With that said, though, Ateneo will be heading into the Finals with hunger and confidence. In short, the Blue Eagles have discovered how to grind out wins. No doubt they’d want to invoke the Law of Averages and get back at UP in the biggest of ways.

The case for UP

Once again, defense. After their, 3-3, draw to start the second round against UST, UP have kept seven clean sheets including the Final Four game against the former. Villanueva is a good goalkeeper in his own right, but he is well protected by his backline which consists of Feb Baya, Patxi Santos, Ian Clarino and Lou Rafanan.

In front of them is defensive midfielder Niño Muros who effectively shields those behind him. Heck, even the Fighting Maroons’ attackers defend up front as UP head coach Anto Gonzales implements a high pressing game. After 15 games, UP had just conceded 5 goals all throughout the season. That’s an immense record and one which the players and coaches should be proud of. 

At the other end, UP has displayed some wastefulness in goal this season. While the Fighting Maroons have mastered the art of winning 1-0, finishing is an aspect which Gonzales and some of the players themselves alluded to which needed some work. Things are looking up for them in that part of their game, though, as they scored three times against UST to reach the Finals.

Why ADMU might lose

UP might just prove to be too strong defensively for Ateneo. UP secured identical, 1-0, wins against Ateneo in the elimination round. Both games were characterized by the Fighting Maroons’ defensive solidity and their capability of clinching the odd goal. UP’s backline has made virtually no mistakes this season unlike Ateneo’s which had to be constantly shuffled in order to find the right mix.

While Ateneo themselves have shown their ability to win against top teams, UP is the only one left in the top six who they haven’t beaten. Could it be said that UP is Ateneo’s kryptonite? Definitely. In the end, it may boil down on who scores the first goal. If UP scores the first goal, then that might be all she wrote for Ateneo in the Finals. 

Why UP might lose 

Ateneo is an in-form team at the moment. The Blue Eagles have never looked more assured defensively until now while Masyu Yoshioka and Javier Ocampo Gayoso have delivered the goods up front. In midfield, Liay, Julian Roxas and captain Mikko Mabanag have played better ever since Joseph Poe was positioned as the defensive midfielder.

The Blue Eagles have also demonstrated their capability of winning, 1-0, as shown in their second round wins against the FEU Tamaraws and Green Archers. Again, it all boils down to which team can score that first goal. UP have been so good defensively this season, but they have yet to show whether or not they are capable of winning a game from a losing position.

When La Salle and UST scored first against UP in the first round, the Fighting Maroons weren’t able to at least get a draw despite having so many chances. Ateneo had come from behind, won by the lone goal and survived a penalty shootout this season unlike UP. Who knows? Maybe those experiences will prove handy for Ateneo. 

Key Blue Eagles

For the Blue Eagles to pull through, center-back Jeremiah Rocha would need to organize his defense in order to ensure the Fighting Maroons are at arms’ length. This season, Rocha is arguably Ateneo’s best defender and he showed that he was more than capable to putting his neck on the line when he took one of the penalties which allowed the Blue Eagles to march on to the Finals.

Aside from Rocha, veteran midfielders Liay and Mabanag have to perform well in order to contain UP’s midfield. Both midfielders have shown they can attack, defend and create on the pitch and it’s that ability which could prove crucial in winning the center of the park for Ateneo. If Ateneo rules midfield, then UP will have a difficult time playing that possession-based game of theirs.

Key Fighting Maroons

Midfield will be the big battlefield for this game upon which UP will need Muros and Gadia to perform above par. Muros will happily defend in the middle of the park which will then allow his more creative teammates to attack at will. On the other hand, Gadia will act as the bridge between defense and attack. Gadia is capable of also doing the dirty work and, as seen in the Final Four game against UST, has the eye for the crucial passes which will enable goalscoring opportunities.

At the back, Santos will need to organize his team for the final time this season. He was moved to center-back from right-back to act as an organizer of the Anto Gonzales coached team. Aside from his defensive prowess, he is also renowned for his set-piece delivery which could prove useful for the Fighting Maroons. Keeping things tight at the back has been UP’s specialty this season and that may be more than enough to beat Ateneo.

Past encounters 

Probably the last time Ateneo and UP played each other in a game of similar magnitude was in the Season 75 Finals. Back then, it was a best-of-three series which Ateneo closed out in two games courtesy of winning each game via penalties after both fixtures ended level. That Blue Eagles title triumph also ended the Fighting Maroons’ reign of consecutive titles to just two. Ateneo’s former goalkeeper Nick O’ Donnell was adjudged to be the MVP for Season 75 while Liay also bagged the Rookie of the Year award that year.

Prediction 

Logic dictates that UP will beat Ateneo in the Finals. It will be a cagey encounter with both teams cautious against committing unnecessary errors. However, Ateneo’s defense is more error-prone than UP and that may spell the difference. With that said, just the one goal might be needed to find the winner and all signs point to the boys in Maroon.