A stunning loss in its opening game in Group C of the basketball competition at the 2026 Aichi-Nagoya Asian Games immediately put Gilas Pilipinas’ bid to retain the gold medal in serious jeopardy.
Against a Bahrain squad reinforced by 6-foot-7 NBA veteran JaKarr Sampson, 6-foot-9 Elijah Thomas, and 6-foot-10 Serbian Uroš Ilić, Gilas Pilipinas could not muster enough firepower beyond Calvin Oftana, Adrian Nocum, and Justine Baltazar, stumbling to an upset 89-85 defeat.
The silver lining in the loss was that Gilas Pilipinas managed to keep the game close, a factor that could prove crucial in determining the team’s chances of advancing to the knockout quarterfinals after the group stage.
The Philippines bounced back in emphatic fashion in its second game, as Robert Bolick and Jerrick Ahanmisi erupted from beyond the arc to help Gilas Pilipinas pull away from Kazakhstan, 109-78. The victory not only put the Philippines in the win column but also kept its hopes of advancing to the knockout round firmly in its own hands.
The top two teams from each of the three groups, along with the two best-performing third-place teams, will advance to the quarterfinals.
There are two best-case scenarios for Gilas Pilipinas. The first is a victory over China in its final game on Monday. The second is for Kazakhstan to defeat Bahrain by any margin while the Philippines avoids losing to China by more than 67 points.
In either scenario, the Philippines will be guaranteed second place in Group C and the sixth seed in the quarterfinals. That would set up a knockout showdown against Chinese Taipei or the top team from Group A, which will be either South Korea or Japan.
The reality, however, is that neither of these best-case scenarios appears particularly promising.
As a result, the Philippines may have to pursue the more plausible route of finishing as one of the two best third-place teams.
The two teams currently occupying the third-place slots are Jordan from Group B and Saudi Arabia from Group A. Jordan sits at -5 in the quotient system, while Saudi Arabia is at -11. Thanks to its blowout victory over Kazakhstan, the Philippines currently holds a +27 quotient.
To keep its gold-medal retention bid alive, Gilas Pilipinas must target two possible outcomes even if it ultimately falls to China.
A loss by 31 points or fewer would enable Gilas Pilipinas to overtake Jordan for seventh place in the standings.
Meanwhile, a defeat by no more than 37 points would allow the Philippines to squeeze into the eighth and final quarterfinal berth.
Whether Gilas Pilipinas finishes seventh or eighth, it will face the top team from Group A, either South Korea or Japan. Even if the Philippines finishes eighth, it cannot face China in the knockout quarterfinals because both teams come from the same preliminary-round group.
Of course, Gilas Pilipinas will be expected to pursue nothing less than a victory against China. However, it will face a formidable challenge against a squad that is fresh off two victories in the latest FIBA Basketball World Cup Asian Qualifiers window in August.
China routed host Qatar, 83-57, on August 27 before following that up with a narrow 89-87 victory over Lebanon at the Xishi Basketball Center in Zhuji.
A pair of 6-foot-3 shooting guards produced solid numbers for China in those games. Liao Sanning averaged 14.5 points, while Hu Mingxuan contributed 10 points per game. Portland Trail Blazers’ 7-foot-1 center Hansen Yang, who averaged 17 points and nine rebounds for China, is not participating in the Asian Games.
Nevertheless, Gilas Pilipinas will still have to contend with a significant height disadvantage against a Chinese squad boasting a frontline of 6-foot-10 Hu Jinqiu, 6-foot-10 Jiao Boqiao, 7-foot-3 Yu Jiahao, and 6-foot-9 power forward Wang Junjie.
China has been merciless in the Asian Games so far. The Chinese raced to a 19-point lead over Kazakhstan in the first quarter before cruising to a 99-61 victory. In their game against Bahrain on Saturday, they built a 21-point advantage by the end of the opening period and eventually won by 66 points, 105-59.
